Sep 7, 2010

Measuring a football manager's performance?

Bulgaria lost last night to Montenegro. We lost with the same manager that led Levski Sofia to the 1/4 finals in the UEFA Cup and the groups in the Champions League in 2006. So I decided to run some quick stats on his performance as a manager with the team he managed. So far the stats are quite simple and nothing fancy like the Capello Index. Here they are

name: Stanimir Stoilov

2004/05: Levski Sofia
games: 38
wins: 30 (78.9473684211%)
losses: 3 (7.89473684211%)
ties: 5 (13.1578947368%)
goals for: 97 (2.55263157895 per game)
goals against: 23 (0.605263157895 per game)
goal diff: 74

2005/06: Levski Sofia
games: 43
wins: 28 (65.1162790698%)
losses: 8 (18.6046511628%)
ties: 7 (16.2790697674%)
goals for: 86 (2.0 per game)
goals against: 38 (0.883720930233 per game)
goal diff: 48

2006/07: Levski Sofia, Bulgaria
games: 47
wins: 33 (70.2127659574%)
losses: 8 (17.0212765957%)
ties: 6 (12.7659574468%)
goals for: 118 (2.51063829787 per game)
goals against: 40 (0.851063829787 per game)
goal diff: 78

2007/08: Levski Sofia
games: 34
wins: 21 (61.7647058824%)
losses: 9 (26.4705882353%)
ties: 4 (11.7647058824%)
goals for: 62 (1.82352941176 per game)
goals against: 25 (0.735294117647 per game)
goal diff: 37

2008/09: Litex, Bulgaria
games: 44
wins: 24 (54.5454545455%)
losses: 8 (18.1818181818%)
ties: 12 (27.2727272727%)
goals for: 78 (1.77272727273 per game)
goals against: 37 (0.840909090909 per game)
goal diff: 41

2009/10: Litex, Bulgaria
games: 14
wins: 7 (50.0%)
losses: 6 (42.8571428571%)
ties: 1 (7.14285714286%)
goals for: 25 (1.78571428571 per game)
goals against: 20 (1.42857142857 per game)
goal diff: 5

2010/11: Bulgaria
games: 3
wins: 0 (0.0%)
losses: 3 (100.0%)
ties: 0 (0.0%)
goals for: 0 (0.0 per game)
goals against: 6 (2.0 per game)
goal diff: -6


Aside from the trophies that Stoilov has lifted as a manager, there are few interesting observations to make:
- Since 2006/07 Stoilov's teams have been struggling to score 2 goals per game on average
- Starting in 2007/08 Stoilov's teams have an increasing trend in the goals they concede per game on average
- Starting in 2006/07 Stoilov's teams have a downward trend in the percentage games they've won in a season


So then comes the question: what would be the best metrics to evaluate and measure a manager's performance?

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